A frosty ‘handshake’ with 3 million PNW electric customers

Submitted by Sarah LaBrasca, Lakeview Light & Power.

This following article, written and shared by Chelsea Martin, Government Relations/Communications Coordinator for Modern Electric Water Company in Spokane, WA, aims to shed light on the unavoidable repercussions that could have an adverse effect on residents of our region if the Lower Snake River Dams are breached. It delves into the clandestine nature of the “handshake agreement” orchestrated by the United States Government with the Six Sovereigns, addressing the secretive commitment to contemplate dam breaches. The concerning absence of open dialogue and representation for public power officials in this agreement raises concerns about potential impacts on energy prices and reliability in the Pacific Northwest. This exclusive approach disregards the interests of over three million electricity customers and also neglects the critical needs of farming, transportation, navigation, and the overall economic well-being of the region.

Amid a whirlwind of celebration and media coverage, the Biden administration, together with four Columbia River Basin tribes and the governors of Oregon and Washington, signed a $1 billion “handshake” deal they say will preserve salmon and pave the way for breaching the lower Snake River dams in Eastern Washington.

Before the signing parties could pop the champagne cork on Feb. 23, President Biden Climate Adviser John Podesta brought some sobriety to the celebration with his cautionary words.

“This is only the beginning. In a sense, this agreement really is just a handshake. A set of solemn, mutual commitments—ones we worked very hard to create,” Podesta stated, before the Columbia Basin Restoration Initiative was signed. “But, at the end of the day, it’s a handshake, nonetheless.”

So what exactly did Podesta mean by “just a handshake”?

Generally speaking, handshake deals lack the formality and legal protections of written contracts. They are based on trust, goodwill and shared understanding of the terms and expectations of the parties involved in the dealmaking.

Because handshake deals are not legally binding documents, they’re susceptible to misunderstandings, disputes and breaches of trust. And when handshake deals are made in secret—behind closed doors and without knowledge or input from significantly impacted parties—their foundation is precarious, at best.

Let’s rewind a moment and get you up to speed …

In 2001, several environmental groups and four tribes filed a lawsuit accusing the federal government of violating the Endangered Species Act with its dams and harming endangered salmon and steelhead. In January 2023, the four tribes (Nez Perce, Yakama, Warm Springs & Umatilla Tribes) and Washington and Oregon state leaders dubbed themselves the “Six Sovereigns” and began quietly drafting a plan known as the Columbia Basin Restoration Initiative. In March, they took their secret settlement proposal to the White House, where they asked for help from John Podesta, President Biden’s senior adviser for clean energy innovation and implementation.

They kept this stealthy negotiation under wraps for nearly a year, until the details were leaked to the public on Nov. 29, 2023.

Voiceless: Excluded parties in $1 billion deal

That’s when the nation learned this mystery settlement was negotiated without the involvement of:

• the U.S. Congress (the only entity that can authorize dam breaching),
• 3 million Americans paying electric bills in the region,
• 120 electric utilities tasked with delivering power to those electric consumers,
• 25 other federally recognized tribes in Washington,
• 6 other impacted states (Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming and California),
• 3,715 wheat and barley farmers in Washington,
• 400 wine grape and 1,450 apple growers in Washington,
• 1,100 dairies in Washington,
• 9,000 ranchers in Washington,
• 2.6 million residents and tourists who visit the lower Snake River dams for reservoir-based fishing, hunting, boating, cruising, swimming, camping, wildlife viewing and other land- and water-based recreational activities each year.

The exclusive agreement among the “Six Sovereigns” promises federally funded actions to restore native fish and pave the way for breaching the four dams in the lower Snake River. The plan also outlines federal grants and forgivable loans that will be awarded to tribally owned clean energy projects with the goal of producing “at least one to three gigawatts” over the next decade, energy intended to replace hydropower provided by the dams.

The settlement pledges collaborative efforts between the U.S. Department of Transportation and tribes to improve infrastructure such as roads, railways and culverts. It also includes provisions for modernizing aging hatchery facilities and funding repairs.

What this billion-dollar ‘handshake’ deal won’t do …

The Columbia Basin Restoration Initiative makes grandiose commitments to the exclusive “Six Sovereigns,” but can it actually deliver what it promises?

You see, this deal does not:

• “Take the interests of all stakeholders in the Columbia Basin into account,” as stated at the White House signing ceremony. (See extensive list of excluded stakeholders above.)
• Guarantee up to 3 gigawatts of tribally sponsored “clean, renewable, socially just energy resources” (solar, wind, battery, etc.) that can provide “replacement power” for the lower Snake River dams. (That’s equivalent to three nuclear power plants or six medium-sized coal plants. For reference, it takes 5 megawatts of wind/solar/batteries to replace 1 megawatt of hydropower, so removing the lower Snake River dams—3,000 megawatts—would require a new buildout of 15,000 megawatts of new energy resources.) Furthermore, estimates indicate if this replacement power could be generated, it would take up to four decades to put into place.
• Ensure the return of endangered salmon and steelhead populations to “healthy and abundant levels,” an arbitrary standard left ambiguous in the deal. Still, salmon continue to struggle even inundammed rivers, such as the Snohomish River, about which the Seattle Times wrote: “The state and tribes have invested millions to raise hatchery fish, restore critical habitat, keep rivers cool and clean up industrial and agricultural pollution. Yet the efforts haven’t been enough to keep the river open to fishing this summer as climate change drives warming stream temperatures and lower flows …” Salmon have also been dying in undammedrivers across western Alaska, most likely due to heat stress. (Incidentally, two of the lower Snake River dams provide fish cooling systems to protect salmon from this heat stress.) There is simply no guarantee that dam breaching would save salmon and steelhead populations.
• Protect salmon from their Number 1 killer—oceanic warming—or from being poisoned by 6PPD-quinone, drugs, microplastics, insect-killing chemicals that contain carbaryl and methomyl, lead, mercury and other toxins. Nor does it adequately address threats to salmon from 1,000 insatiable sea lions, 14 colonies of predatory birds or overfishing.
• Offer viable, cost-efficient and climate-friendly alternatives for shipping grain via barges to the ocean. (The estimated cost of replacement infrastructure—rails, roads and dredging—is $1.3 billion.)
• Provide transmission lines needed to connect new tribal energy projects to the grid, a potential oversight of up to $2.4 billion in costs to energy ratepayers and a concern that could add decades onto project timelines,
• Provide what the U.S. government promises will be “an unprecedented 10-year break from decades-long litigation against the federal government’s operations” of the dams. Any party may still sue at any time, particularly groups excluded from the “Six Sovereigns” negotiations.
• Mitigate the risk of exorbitant costs incurred by those additional lawsuits filed by critical stakeholders and parties who have been shut out of this agreement and the administrative process.

What this ‘handshake’ deal will do …

But the Columbia Basin Restoration Initiative likely will:

• Jeopardize electric reliability for millions of Americans living in the Pacific Northwest, increasing our risk of energy blackouts, particularly if the lower Snake River dams are breached,
• Inflict higher energy prices on Pacific Northwest electricity ratepayers, including increased power rates of up to 40% or more, disproportionately harming low-income energy ratepayers,
• Disrupt barge traffic (10 million tons of cargo valued at over $3 billion each year) and impact irrigation projects in the region to the tune of $750 million to reconstruct pump stations and cover disruptions to farms,
• Add 3 million metric tons of carbon to our atmosphere every year from fossil-fueled electricity—and an additional 17.6 million tons from 79,000 semi-trucks that must be put on the roads to make up for lost barging capability if the dams are breached,
• Destabilize the economy of an entire region of the nation, if the dams are breached, including a loss of $540 million per year in regional economic productivity and 4,900 jobs due to higher electricity costs,
• Undermine the Biden administration’s own stated greenhouse gas reduction goals by jeopardizing hydropower, an essential and emissions-free source of electricity that ensures grid stability. The deal unnecessarily raises costs and introduces instability into our hydroelectric operations,
• Misallocate resources that could be used to support proven and effective salmon recovery efforts across our region—including climate-change mitigation or testing for dangerous pollutants such as mercury and polychlorinated biphenyls, or PCBs, found not only in the Columbia River but also in Washington’s Puget Sound. Those toxins severely impede the swimming, feeding and reproductive functions of salmon and jeopardize the health and safety of tribes and other populations that consume the fish. (The agreement offers $85 million in grants to assess toxins in the Columbia River Basin, but it does not adequately address these leading causes of salmon mortality.)

Podesta: Sweeping plan ‘will take all of us’

During the Columbia Basin Restoration Initiative signing ceremony, Podesta celebrated the administration’s achievement, but he simultaneously cautioned supporters that this “handshake” can be undone.

After all, despite its many ambitious promises, the agreement lacks meaningful legislative support. Furthermore, it has led to the alienation of more than half of its stakeholders. And the public is growing increasingly concerned about what the deal—and breaching the lower Snake River dams—could mean for the Pacific Northwest region.

“It will take all of us committing to this partnership now and for years to come to lift the words off the page and bring this agreement to life,” Podesta continued, noting that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are determined to bring the deal to fruition.

“I think if we do that, our collective vision of the Pacific Northwest—one that returns wild salmon and other native fish to healthy and abundant levels, one that runs on clean, affordable, reliable energy, and one that invests in tribal communities and local economies—that vision will become a reality,” Podesta concluded.

The vision of thriving salmon populations, abundant clean energy and bustling economies sounds both ideal and enticing, almost bordering on the realm of the too-good-to-be-true.

But it’s essential to keep in mind that not every extended hand deserves a handshake.